Overview
Climate change is expected to impact water quality and ecosystem health in waterbodies. This study developed a modeling framework to assess the response of environmental variables to climate change scenarios in Lake Taihu, China.
Model Setup
A coupled hydrodynamic-water quality-sediment flux model was employed to simulate water quality processes under future climate scenarios projected from a general circulation model (GCM) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5). The framework was used to evaluate physico-chemical parameters and biological interactions across the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s.
Key Findings
Annual average water temperature increased by 0.96, 2.09, and 3.2 °C by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s respectively. Daily temperature stratification tended to occur earlier and last longer, especially in summer under calm wind conditions. Sediment flux increased while dissolved oxygen concentration decreased. Climate change also increased the onset time, duration, and area of algal blooms, with bloom activation time advancing approximately six days per decade — by the 2080s, bloom onset occurred in February and March, with elevated chlorophyll a lasting into late autumn in the west lake region. The study concludes that water management strategies and ecological restoration plans for Lake Taihu should incorporate anticipated climate change effects.