Overview
Florida Bay, a large and shallow estuary, serves as a vital habitat for a diverse range of marine species and holds significant environmental, commercial, and recreational value. The bay’s salinity structure plays a key role in its ecosystem. Florida Bay receives 45% of its freshwater directly from rainfall — its largest source — while the Taylor River is the second largest source.
Model Setup
A hydrodynamic model was applied to determine whether doubling the Taylor River flow, as currently planned, is adequate to meet salinity performance measures and protect the bay’s ecosystem health.
Key Findings
Model-predicted salinity indicated that rainfall caused the largest reduction (10–15 ppt), followed by Taylor River discharges, and none of the predicted salinity scenario means exceeded 38 ppt. The salinity restoration target was achieved more than 70% of the time by doubling the Taylor River freshwater discharges — but only for existing bay conditions. To protect Florida Bay’s ecosystem health and counterbalance saltwater intrusion in the Everglades wetlands caused by future sea-level rise, additional freshwater sources would need to be identified, raising the question of whether enough freshwater sources are available to achieve the restoration target now and under future sea-level rise.