Overview
Estuaries and coastal areas adjacent to urban centers are rapidly changing, with physical and ecological stresses exacerbated by climate change and sea level rise. This research presents a salinity transport model for Biscayne Bay, Florida, used to estimate salinity under various scenarios of altered precipitation, increased salinity and temperature, and sea level rise.
Model Setup
The simulated scenarios, based on prior studies and existing literature, assumed increases of 1.5 °C in temperature and 0.6 PSU in ocean salinity. Current precipitation was varied from −10% to +10%, and sea level rise varied from +0.46 m to +2.18 m. The worst-case scenario combined a 10% decrease in precipitation with +2.18 m sea level rise, while the mildest combined a 10% increase in precipitation with +0.46 m sea level rise.
Key Findings
In the mildest scenario, a 50% increase in baseline freshwater inputs is needed to maintain currently observed bay salinities; in the worst-case scenario, a 300% freshwater increase would be required. Current Everglades restoration plans aiming to restore bay salinity to “natural” conditions must account for these climate-induced effects — present efforts may not be sufficient to even maintain current salinity conditions in Biscayne Bay. The study proposes urban greening, artificial groundwater recharge with treated wastewater, and decreased water consumption as management measures to reinforce current and future restoration efforts.